The 2025 Anomaly: When Traditional Cycles Don't Apply
The S&P 500 trades at all-time highs while the Fed cuts rates. Historically, rate cuts occur during recessions, not rallies. The bond market disagrees, treasury yields have risen since cuts began, unprecedented in prior easing cycles. Equities price a soft landing while fixed income anticipates persistent inflation. Historical rotation patterns, such as shifting to economically sensitive sectors during easing cycles, may prove less effective given current market concentration and conflicting signals.
Understanding market cycles remains critical, now more than ever. While 2025 may be breaking the rules, the cycle framework still provides context for what's happening and why. The framework won't guarantee perfect timing, but it prevents you from making decisions blindly
The Four Phases of the Market Cycle:
Phase 1: Early Cycle (Recovery)
Coming out of recession, the Fed slashes rates to stimulate growth, unemployment remains elevated but starts improving. Consumer and business confidence begins recovering from the lows, and fear transitions to cautious optimism. During this phase money rotates into the Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Real estate as risk appetite returns and the growth expectations rises on the cheap money expansion.
Phase 2: Mid Cycle (Expansion)
GDP growth here accelerates, corporate earnings surge and unemployment drops rapidly. Business investment ramps up, and confidence is high across all sectors. Mid-cycle is when investing feels effortless. Market rallies lift nearly all sectors. Stock selection matters less because the tide carries most positions higher. This is when portfolio returns make investors feel brilliant but it's the cycle doing the work, not skill. Peak earnings growth occurs here. Economic momentum is strongest. This phase typically lasts the longest and produces the strongest absolute returns.
Phase 3: Late Cycle (Peak)
Growth continues but shows signs of slowing and the Fed shifts to tightening mode, raising rates, and Inflation concerns starts. Valuation concerns increase, and volatility picks up. Inflation beneficiaries outperform in this stage such as Energy, Financials, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare. Rate sensitive growth stocks struggle and investors prioritize earnings stability and cash flow over growth. This is when momentum investors get caught still buying what worked in mid-cycle while institutions rotate to defense.
Phase 4: Recession (Contraction)
GDP contracts, earnings decline broadly and unemployment rises. Credit conditions also tightens which leads to increased defaults and bankruptcies. Fear dominates sentiment, and here the Fed pivots to cutting rates, but it takes time to work. Volatility spikes in the market and headlines turn negative. In this phase, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and Bonds not really lead but they just fall less, dividend safety and value becomes the more important. These sectors usually have negative correlation with the broader market during downturns.
The Rotation Map:
Early Cycle → Buy growth and risk
Mid Cycle → Buy cyclicals and commodities
Late Cycle → Rotate to value and defense
Recession → Consumer Staples, Utilities, Bonds
The key is that The best time to buy each sector is BEFORE it leads, not after. By the time the news is talking about a sector's outperformance, institutional money has already rotated.
Why this time is different
We're in a normalization cycle, not a traditional one. The Fed is mostly unwinding emergency level restriction. This creates opportunity and risk simultaneously.
Market cycles are the natural rhythm of economic expansion and contraction showing in different asset prices. Understanding where we are in the cycle won't make you rich overnight, but it dramatically improves your odds over time.
Most investors will chase what worked last year. The ones who understand cycles will be positioned for what works next year.
Which one will you be?